Let’s take stock. While the housing market has moved past the intense fervor that defined the last couple years, this does not imply the current
market has come to a halt. In fact, buyer activity remains robust as demand continues to be strong across local markets. Despite challenges presented by inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response of historically aggressive rate hikes, consumers have displayed notable resilience.
As we settle into our post pandemic ‘new normal’, we are seeing a return of seasonality in the market. As many buyers have stayed active in the market, the limited inventory –not demand– is constricting sales. New listings of single-family homes are down across our local markets, even as high as 33% in Washington County. The decline in new listings compounds the issue of limited inventory, while also contributing to an uptick in sales prices.
While inventory has been the subject of discussion for several months now, let’s take a closer look at buyer activity. The ShowingTime showing index is a nation-wide measure of how often buyers are touring homes. The graph below uses that index to illustrate historic buyer activity trends to help put today’s market into perspective.
As you can see in the graph, there are seasonality trends in real estate. If you look at the last ‘normal’ years, shown in gray, there was a consistent pattern of buyer activity that peaked in the first half of the year and slowed as each year came to a close. This trend was interrupted in March 2020 when the pandemic hit. The proceeding months (in blue) were a time of uncertainty. From there, we entered the frenzied ‘unicorn’ years of housing (in pink). Similar seasonal trends still existed during this time period, however just at much higher levels.
Now, let’s look at 2023. Buyer traffic has slowed down from the peaks shown during the ‘unicorn’ years, but as mentioned, this is not a decline in demand. Rather, we’re seeing a slow return toward normal seasonality. As the ShowingTime report explains, “Buyers are still out there touring homes. They’re more active than they were in May 2022 (when sticker shock over higher mortgage rates started to set in) and certainly more than they were in the last normal years”. While we Vermonters have always been cognizant of seasonal trends, this national data does outline the unusual disparity experienced during the ‘unicorn’ years between the high peaks to the low valleys in just a few short months. The temperance of this cycle has been a long awaited change, for buyers and agents alike.
Overall, our real estate market continues to be competitive due to the combination of buyer demand, limited inventory, price growth, and affordability concerns. Sellers: Do not be misled to believe there is no opportunity to be had in today’s marketplace. If you are looking to make a move, a seasoned local agent can help you secure an advantageous position for your best results. Buyers: We’re still in a seller’s market. To effectively navigate this challenging landscape, it’s crucial to be well informed and prepared to adapt as needed. Be sure to have an agent in your corner to negotiate competitively on your behalf.
Washington County:
Single-Family Market Statistics sourced from NEREN.com
In Montpelier, there were 5 new homes brought to market and 11 sold last month. Median sales price was $375K for the month of July. Based on this month’s sample, median days on market is up 133% and median sales price is down 12.8%.
In Barre, there were 18 new listings and 12 closings for single-family homes. Last month saw slightly longer market time with 9 median days on market. The median sales price was $344K, a 22.8% increase year over year.
In Waterbury, there were 8 single family homes listed and 3 sales in July. The median sales price was $454k. Based on this small sample size, new listings are down 11% while sales are up 200% compared to last year.
Across Washington County, there were a total of 59 new single-family homes listed and 51 sold. Median sales price was $385K. Compared to this time last year, new listings are down 32.9% while sales prices are up 25.2%.
Lamoille County:
Single-Family Market Statistics sourced from NEREN.com
In Stowe, there were 9 new single family homes listed with 5 sales last month. Homes sold in a median of 6 days while the median sales price was $735k. Stowe is still awaiting more inventory to combat its demand. Compared to this time last year, there are 18.2% less homes available.
Across Lamoille County, there were 32 new listings with 18 sales in July. Year over year, there were 21.9% less homes available yet the median days on market experienced a 33.3% increase.
Chittenden County:
Single-Family Market Statistics sourced from NEREN.com
In Burlington, last month saw 15 new single family homes brought to market. There were 14 homes sold with 6 median days on market and a median sales price of $540k. Year over year, sales were down 41.7% with sales prices up 1.4%.
Across Chittenden County, there were 110 new listings and 95 sales for single family homes in July. The median days on market was 6 days while median sales price took a slight 2.3% bump compared to this time last year.
Franklin County:
Single-Family Market Statistics sourced from NEREN.com
Across Franklin County, there were 56 new single family homes brought to market. July saw 55 homes sold with a competitive median 7 days on market. Year over year, the number of new listings has declined 18.8% with a 8.9% increase in median sales price.
Grand Isle County:
Single-Family Market Statistics sourced from NEREN.com
Across Grand Isle County, last month saw 17 new listings and 8 homes sold. The median days on market was a swift 7 days and sales price was $430K. Compared to this time last year, there are 57.9% few sales and median sales price is up 8.9%.