Since the pandemic began, housing prices have gone up, home shortages have increased and interest rates have risen. Some changes have been intentional, like the Fed combating inflation with raised rates, but others have been outside the realm of predictability. As we near the end of 2022, some of these pandemic-driven factors that created unprecedented market conditions for more than two years are starting to fade.
The market is cooling down. Historically, seasonal declines have been a predicted trend in Northeastern markets, however this year there are more factors influencing buyer activity. While buyer demand still far outweighs market supply, affordability concerns are the main discernible factor today. Despite mortgage rates having dropped over the past several weeks, demand is lower than it has been and homebuilders have slowed new construction projects, furthering supply concerns of affordable housing.
What lies ahead for 2023? We are in an unprecedented market shift. This is not the recession of 2008, however we have reached the pivotal point of pandemic-related factors and affordability concerns where a market correction is required. As we are already seeing evidence of market corrections occurring outside of normal seasonality trends, we can expect this trend to continue into the new year. For buyers, mortgage rates will be the primary consideration. As a bulk of prospective purchasers sit on the sidelines during this transitional period, the resulting silver lining could be increases in housing supply. With a softened buyer demand, this also puts pressure on sellers to lower prices.
Nevertheless, the market will continue to remain in the seller’s favor due to tight inventory. Buyer demand has not lessened, only buyer activity due to affordability concerns. This means while the competition remains high, pandemic price growth and waived contingencies will no longer be the market condition.
Washington County:
Single-Family Market Statistics sourced from NEREN.com
In Montpelier, there were 4 new homes listed and 7 closings last month. Median days on market was 7 and sales price was $375K. There were 56% fewer listings compared to this time last year, however sales price is up 7.6%.
In Barre, there were 11 homes new to market and 19 closings. Median days on market was 8 and sales price was $265K. Year over year, Barre saw no change for number of new listings, however closings are up 26% and prices are up 17%.
In Waterbury, there were 3 new listings and 4 sold during the month of November. Median days on market was 38 and sales price was $435K. Compared to this time last year, there was minimal change to all metrics with the exception of sales price which is down 33%.
Across Washington County, there were a total of 30 new single-family homes on market and 48 sold. Median days on market was 8 with a sales price of $370K. While both listings and sales are down 23+%, market time and sales price are up compared to this time last year.
Lamoille County:
Single-Family Market Statistics sourced from NEREN.com
In Stowe, there were 5 new single-family homes on market with 7 closings. Median days on market was a staggering 48 days, however this was a 14% improvement from this time last year. Seasonality trends appear exaggerated in recreational-heavy markets, Stowe in particular. Median sales price was down 8.7% at $715K for the month of November.
Across Lamoille County, there were 21 new homes listed over the last month. Median days on market was 29 and sales price was $467.5K. Year over year, days on market was up 20.8% and sales price was down 11.8%.
Chittenden County:
Single-Family Market Statistics sourced from NEREN.com
In Burlington, there were 11 new homes for sale and 14 sold during the month of November. Days on market remains in the neighborhood of one week with a median sales price of $475K. Year over year, this is only a 0.5% increase in sales price while closed sales are down 36%.
Across Chittenden County, there were 61 new listings and only 91 closed sales. Compared to this time last year, both are down while the median days on market remains the same with little change in sales price. Inventory remains tight while the difference in sales price reflects the market cooling from pre-pandemic trends.
Franklin County:
Single-Family Market Statistics sourced from NEREN.com
Across Franklin County, there were a total of 24 new listings and 45 sales. Median days on market was 13 days and median sales price was $299K. Compared to this time last year, there was a 44.2% dip in new homes to market, and a 21% decline in sales.
Grand Isle County:
Single-Family Market Statistics sourced from NEREN.com
Across Grand Isle County, there were 4 new listings and 12 homes sold during the month of November. Median days on market was 7 days and sales price was $490K. Compared to this time last year, while there are almost half the number of homes on market, there was an increase in sales price almost 44%.